Week 6 Share -- Horizons
What horizons, system boundaries, do we include to validly, robustly, examine our assumptions, and interpret our results?
WELCOME to System Dynamics 101 - Spring Session I - MBA 645
WELCOME to System Dynamics 101. This blog, THE WALL, will be our vehicle to communicate with one another throughout the 7 weeks of this course. First, of all, please introduce yourselves. Second, post your 2 to 3 person teams. Third, post any questions or concerns you might have. That third point is critical: this forum will serve as our way to grow experience and understanding of the models we will be building and interpreting all term. Be sure to encourage one another daily -- while it is still today! Thanks, Bill
Chelsea Fedigan:
ReplyDeleteIt is important to include time horizons to examine our assumptions and interpret out results. More specifically, it is beneficial to include a start, end, and duration. This can improve the accuracy of our results. Additionally, it can also be beneficial to examine the short and long-term horizon. Depending on the scenario you are analyzing, you need to understand how a situation will play out in the short term and see its long-term effects.
An example of a system boundary is defining the relationships between different variables or elements. It is important to create flows or connections in the model to better interpret our results. We are able to understand how changes in one variable affect the other. Feedback loops are another system boundary that could be used to examine assumptions.
Building on Chelsea's thoughts. Two aspects of the time horizon we modeled were steps and pulses, each with scenario horizons around increments, as well as continuous and discrete time delays. We also used the horizon distinction of stocks and flows, of endogenous and exogenous, as well as interpretations of some exogenous variables agents might influence. What about views?
ReplyDeleteExamining assumptions and interpreting results robustly requires careful consideration of horizons and system boundaries:
ReplyDelete- Temporal Horizons: Consider the time frame over which assumptions hold true and results are interpreted. This includes short-term, medium-term, and long-term perspectives. Understanding how assumptions and results might evolve over time is crucial for robust interpretation.
- Spatial Horizons: Take into account the spatial scale at which assumptions are made and results are applicable. This could range from local to global scales, depending on the context of the study or analysis. Understanding spatial boundaries helps in generalizing results appropriately.
- Uncertainty and Sensitivity Horizons: Assess the uncertainty associated with assumptions and interpretations. Explore the sensitivity of results to variations in key assumptions or parameters. Understanding the range of possible outcomes and their likelihood enhances the robustness of interpretations.
By examining assumptions and interpreting results across these horizons and system boundaries, researchers and analysts can ensure a more valid and robust understanding of the phenomena under study. This approach facilitates a more holistic assessment, accounting for diverse perspectives, uncertainties, and implications associated with the analysis.
As in the quaestio disputatae, diversity is the key to a comprehensive, and objectively justifiable belief as a management response and subsequent action.
DeleteTime horizons and well-defined system boundaries are crucial to implement in determining results. Defining the start, end, and duration of an analysis is crucial to align decision-making with specific business objectives. It allows organizations to evaluate short-term and long-term implications, facilitating strategic planning and adaptability.
ReplyDeleteSystem boundaries in the models involve outlining relationships between different business variables and stakeholders. This framework helps create a visual representation of how changes in one aspect may impact others, aiding in informed decision-making. Stakeholder perspectives, both internal and external, play a vital role in the models, ensuring that diverse viewpoints are considered for comprehensive and effective decision-making.
Sensitivity analysis is particularly pertinent here, where critical business assumptions need to be identified and assessed. This analysis contributes to the resilience of decision-making processes, allowing organizations to navigate uncertainties effectively. The exploration of feedback loops within the system enhances the understanding of dynamic business interactions, providing insights into how decisions may ripple through various facets of the organization.
In every project I have been in, sensitivity analysis was the key to success or failure. We sometimes simply ran out of time! The ultimate sensitivity analysis is a Monte Carlo, but that will only work if we do the hard work of understanding dependencies, as in a closed loop, and the correlations.
DeleteOne horizon that we include in models to examine our assumptions and interpret our results is a time horizon. We always pick out a minimum and maximum timeline for a project to be completed. This is important because often we assume that projects can be completed faster than they actually are or we assume that different results will come at different times. Including a time horizon also allows us to compare the outcome of long-term versus short-term results. For example, we may believe that making a lot of our product in the short-run and having lots of production is the way to go, but if the product is a fad in the long run, then the company is stuck dealing with and storing the extra inventory.
ReplyDeleteIncrements are another horizon that’s important to look at in a model. Whenever I am interpreting my models for this course, I always run a tornado graph and run a simulation on each slider change. By being able to see the different increments that occur when I move one variable up or down, I can see which variables are the most impactful to other parts of the system. Therefore, if I were a real project using this, I could identify the critical stocks and variables and make sure that if a variable has to suffer at some point throughout the process, it is not the most critical one. Going along with this, sensitivity analysis is also incredibly important. We may think we know how all of the stocks and flows in a system impact each other, but a sensitivity analysis helps clarify this. It helps us re-examine our past assumptions to see how a stock is actually impacted by other variables and by how much.
Finally, you have to recognize the scale at which your system is operating. If you are trying to complete a worldwide project or modeling a system to use in your own life, the parameters will be very different as is the influence of outside forces. Understanding the scope of a project helps you better recognize what other forces may need to be included in the model to make it more realistic.
Then it behooves us to understand the impact, insurgent as that may be, of exogenous forces. Does any part of those exogeneities feed back to us when we act?
DeleteOne thing to examine our assumption is to make cross validation in different times and conditions to be able to produce the result with confidence as the purpose of the validation is to examine our interpretation and the and decisions based on the results. Another thing is to make boundaries such as limitations that are compatible with model’s goal. Since there are information that flow to stocks and affect the stocks, it is important to make appropriate constrains such as delay depends on the situation to be able to meet our goal.
ReplyDeleteAs each model is different, we should choose appropriate parameters that along with the dynamics of the model as all parameters are plausible and produce right definition of the boundaries for the model. Also, each flow itself affects by different horizons such as time, scope and duration that would impact the stock as well.
To be able to interpret our results, we also need to determine what is the purpose of the analysis, what are the cause and effect of the variables, the effect of increment and what is the measure of the improvements.
Thus the problem of selecting a model. Which model leaks less important information? Entropy at work here!
DeleteWhen building system dynamics models, it is critical that we carefully consider our time horizons and system boundaries. The time horizon refers to the time frame we are analyzing - are we looking at short-term behavior over months and years, or long-term behavior over decades? The system boundary defines what factors and variables we explicitly include in the model. As modelers, being aware of our assumptions around horizons and boundaries is crucial for validly and robustly analyzing model behavior. If our horizon is too short, we may miss important long-term dynamics. If our boundary is too narrow, we may exclude key drivers and relationships that significantly influence the issues we are studying. Testing different horizons and boundaries via sensitivity analyses allows us to stress test our assumptions.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally, when we have results from our models, interpreting them within the context of the horizons and boundaries we have set is essential. As Forrester notes, "time horizon and system boundary determine identity" - the behavior we see is shaped by the structure and assumptions embedded in our models. Considering different bounding choices and their impact helps put our findings into perspective. Carefully designed bounding structures and intentional horizon-setting also allows more transparent communication of our work to stakeholders.
In summary, horizons and boundaries fundamentally guide model development and what insights we can draw. By consciously evaluating our assumptions during model conceptualization and questioning the lenses we use when interpreting outputs, we can build higher quality models and have more nuanced, thorough conversations about what our models suggest. Testing the robustness of our results to different horizons and boundaries is key for valid examination of the complex systems we study.
Great quote from Jay Forrester. Nick Taleb has been saying something similar for years through his Black Swan and Anti-fragile work. We are all quite historical. Every organization carries with it the remnants, cultural artifacts, tone, sometimes the debts, of previous instantiations of those organizations.
DeleteConsidering time horizons is crucial. This involves defining the timeframe over which assumptions hold. One can understand how assumptions may evolve and their corresponding implications over time by assessing short-term and long-term perspectives. This allows for a better understanding of how the data may change.
ReplyDeleteSpatial horizons are equally important. These entail examining the spatial scale at which assumptions are made. Understanding spatial boundaries aids in generalizing results appropriately, ensuring that the model's findings are relevant within the intended context, whether local, regional, or global.
What horizons, system boundaries, do we include to validly, robustly, examine our assumptions, and interpret our results?
ReplyDeleteWhen looking at the idea of what horizons, system boundaries, do we include to validly, robustly, examine our assumptions, and interpret our results there are many things we can look at. I think the idea of time horizons are massive in order to implement and ultimately determine the results. It allows you to evaluate the short-term and long-term implications of the information with planning and adaptability. Also looking into the idea of assumptions and our results as a time horizon. This allows us to compare data as said above between short and long term. Increments are also very important because you can see different increments and change the variables. You can see which variables are the most impactful.
Thus the use of step and pulse experiments in our scenarios.
DeleteTo examine our assumptions and interpret our results, we need to consider various horizons and system boundaries. The temporal horizon, which refers to the time frame of the study, should be sufficiently long to capture significant effects of the variables under study. The spatial boundary, which defines the geographical area of the study, should be wide enough to include all relevant locations. The system boundary, which delineates the processes and activities included in the study, should encompass all significant inputs and outputs. By carefully defining these boundaries, we can ensure a comprehensive and valid examination of our assumptions and a robust interpretation of our results.
ReplyDeleteThe main component in interpreting our results properly is identifying proper variables. I think creating the appropriate variables is critical in interpreting results. This is where the results derive from. Majority of the hard work I believe comes from just identifying variables rather then actually testing the module out. The hard work also occurs when taking the time to actually build the module out. Basically, all foundational elements are the most important and the most amount of time taken to have a successful attempt at accurate results.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAccurate interpretation of results depends on carefully choosing the right variables. This is crucial for getting meaningful insights from our analyses. Most of the work goes into picking the variables in the beginning, rather than testing the module later on. It's important to select them carefully to make sure our analyses are solid. Building the module itself also takes a lot of effort, needing time and resources. Success depends on these basics, which need a big investment of time and work to get reliable results.
ReplyDeleteConcept maps can never be overlooked. The simple compilation of all of the variables, entities, relationships on post-its on a board is the best start of an analysis.
Delete
ReplyDeleteTo validly and robustly examine our assumptions and interpret our results, we must consider a wide range of horizons and system boundaries. This includes understanding the broader context in which our project operates, such as economic, social, and environmental factors. Additionally, we must consider the interconnectedness of various stakeholders and systems that may impact or be impacted by our project. By taking a holistic approach and considering multiple perspectives, we can ensure an analysis that accounts for the unpredictable and complex nature of the real world.
To ensure accurate research findings, it is essential to meticulously define the study's boundaries and to identify appropriate variables carefully. The temporal horizon must be long enough to capture the significant effects of the variables, while the spatial boundary should include all relevant locations to account for geographical influences. The system boundary must encompass all significant inputs and outputs to provide a holistic view of the study. On the other hand, identifying the right variables is foundational to the research, as it forms the basis from which meaningful results are derived. This involves not just selecting variables but also understanding their interrelations and impacts. The process of creating these variables and developing a model to test them often constitutes the bulk of the work, emphasizing the importance of foundational elements in achieving accurate results. Together, these practices ensure the validity, relevance, and applicability of the research outcomes, highlighting the intricate balance between defining boundaries and identifying variables as pivotal to the research process.
ReplyDeleteTime horizons is something that is crucial when it comes to running a business. If proper time horizons aren’t put in place, a business can fall behind the curve when it comes to producing up to date and accurate products. products are constantly evolving and being to slow being a curve can mean massive amounts of mixed revenue. system boundaries are also important as they control what you are doing with your product. Without boundaries, the making of an idea/product can become disorganized and lead to unnecessary difficulties in production. In order to maintain maximum efficiency in a system, systems boundaries must be tightly monitored to reduce error.
ReplyDeleteAn important horizon that we include in our models to examine our assumptions and interpret our results is the time horizon. In the models, we pick out a timeline for a project to be completed with a minimum and maximum time frame. Timeline is important because our assumptions make that certain projects can be accomplished faster than they actually are. The time horizon allows us to understand how the data may change over a certain time period. This allows us to compare the outcome by seeing long-run or short-run within the model.
ReplyDeleteWhen developing a system dynamics model. Determining the appropriate horizon and system boundaries is crucial for ensuring the validity and robustness of the examination of assumptions and interpretation of results. One horizon that should be included is a temporal horizon. The time frame should be defined over which the model is intended to provide different insights into the project. It is crucial to consider the dynamics that unfold over different time horizons and how they may impact the system. One system boundary that needs to be observed is the internal and external factors. The boundaries of the system need to be clearly identified by distinguishing between internal variables (those directly influenced by the model) and external factors (those influencing the system but not explicitly modeled). Another key aspect to consider is that stakeholder involvement. It is essential to identify the key stakeholders impacted by the system and those whose decisions or actions influence the system. Incorporate the perspectives of relevant stakeholders to enhance the model's accuracy and relevance.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, spatial and sensitivity horizons are the most important parameters for setting up a model and interpreting its results. Temporal horizons allow the model to be adapted to both short and long timeframes, which is a degree of flexibility needed for most models to be effective and versatile. Similarly, sensitivity horizons allow for the model to measure results against key parameters, which is essential for both interpretation and making adjustments in order to refine the process. Both temporal and sensitivity horizons represent key metrics of reference and grounding for interpreting a model's results, and allow for clear paths for adjusting the model based off of findings. Time is obviously an essential consideration for most scenarios and easy to manipulate, as is the concept of sensitivity, where the aspects of the model can be measured for their relative impact and relations.
ReplyDeleteIn the realm of business operations, establishing appropriate time horizons is vital for staying competitive. Failure to do so can result in a company lagging behind in product development, leading to missed revenue opportunities. As products constantly evolve, maintaining up-to-date offerings is essential for success. Additionally, having clear system boundaries is crucial for effective product development. These boundaries help streamline the process, preventing disorganization and reducing errors in production. Proper monitoring and management of these boundaries are necessary to ensure maximum efficiency and quality throughout the production chain.
ReplyDeleteWhen examining assumptions and interpreting results in a complex system, it's important to consider various horizons and system boundaries to ensure a valid and robust analysis. Understanding Short-Term vs. Long-Term horizons and assessing the implications of assumptions and results over different timeframes.
ReplyDeleteStakeholder Perspectives: Internal vs. External Stakeholders and consider the viewpoints of both internal (employees, management) and external stakeholders (customers, community members). Different perspectives can highlight diverse impacts.
Written by Vetle: Time Horizons are essential when running a business, and businesses often are faced by a dilemma, should they prioritize to "hack" a product together so it works for now or should they invest a decent amount of resources into a new-groundbreaking product that may not be profitable in the short term (Malo, 2020).
ReplyDeleteMalo, L. (2020, March 4). Your time horizon will shape your product priorities. Linkedin.com. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/your-time-horizon-shape-product-priorities-lubomir-malo
Horizons are important for being able to operate a business effectively because it allows them to place value in the importance of planning and diligent work in order to better set the company up for sustained, long term success: even if it is difficult for the company to initially maintain. Effective system boundaries allow for a company to understand what is most important to their mission and subsequently allows them to be able to set their business up to most effectively work towards their values: which is usually a better long term indicator of success than immediate success often is.
ReplyDeleteTo examine assumptions and interpret results robustly, it’s essential to establish clear horizons and system boundaries. Clearly outline what is included and excluded in your system. This involves specifying physical, temporal, and functional boundaries. Recognize all relevant stakeholders and their interests. This can include individuals, organizations, or societal groups affected by the system or its outcomes. We must also establish timeframes so we can differentiate between the short term and long term. For functional boundaries, Identify the key processes and interactions within your system. This includes inputs, outputs, and feedback loops. We must also recognize external factors that could impact the system, even if they are not directly included within your boundaries. Scenario analysis is also a big horizon. Evaluate how different scenarios might affect your results. This includes considering best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios. Finally, assess how sensitive your results are to changes in key assumptions or variables. By systematically addressing these horizons and boundaries, you can ensure a more comprehensive, robust, and valid examination of your assumptions and results.
ReplyDeleteI would say that to effectively examine and interpret system dynamics, you need to clearly define the time frames and boundaries for your analysis. In terms of time frames, they should cover both short-term and long-term effects to see how things change over time. Boundaries should include all relevant areas, whether they are geographic, organizational, or functional, to ensure nothing important is left out. It’s also important to consider the perspectives of everyone involved to get a full picture. Make sure to include feedback loops to understand how changes affect different parts of the system. Lastly, consider time delays to accurately reflect how effects develop. Defining these elements helps create a solid framework for analyzing system dynamics.
ReplyDelete